Can India Overtake China Up to 2050?
The world’s two most populous countries, India and China, have been in a race to become the most populous country in the world. With the population of India expected to surpass that of China by 2023, the question of whether India can overtake China up to 2050 is an interesting one.
According to Policy Brief No. 153 from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), entitled “India overtakes China as the world’s most populous country”, between 2023 and 2050, the number of persons aged 65 or over is expected to nearly double in China and to increase by more than double in India. This suggests that India’s population growth rate will be higher than that of China, making it likely that India will overtake China in terms of population by 2050.
The UN DESA report also notes that India’s population is expected to grow at a faster rate than China’s due to its higher fertility rate. India’s fertility rate is currently 2.3 children per woman, while China’s is 1.6. This means that India’s population will grow faster than China’s, making it more likely that India will overtake China in terms of population by 2050.
However, it is important to note that India’s population growth rate is not the only factor that will determine whether India can overtake China up to 2050. India’s economic growth rate is also an important factor. India’s economy is currently growing at a faster rate than China’s, and if this trend continues, India’s population growth rate will be even higher than China’s. This could help India overtake China in terms of population by 2050.
Furthermore, India’s population is expected to be younger than China’s in the coming years. This could give India an advantage over China in terms of economic growth, as a younger population is more likely to be more productive and innovative. This could help India overtake China in terms of economic growth by 2050.
In conclusion, it is likely that India will overtake China in terms of population by 2050. India’s higher fertility rate, faster economic growth rate, and younger population are all factors that could help India overtake China in terms of population by 2050. However, it is important to note that other factors, such as India’s economic policies and its ability to attract foreign investment, could also play a role in determining whether India can overtake China up to 2050.
